Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Obama Administration Fudged Numbers Not 7.1 million But Only 1 Million New Enrollees

By expert analysis  it appears that the Obamacare enrollment fell way short of the 7 million figure by 6 million.  

The seven million enrollment figure that the administration is bandying about is misleading. The actual number of uninsured covered by the marketplace will be much smaller. For starters, if the current trend continues, 20 percent of the seven million will drop out without paying. Out of the remaining 5.6 million, only about half were likely previously uninsured. Why? Because reliable early surveys found that a whopping 65 to 90 percent of those flocking to the exchange already had insurance. Even assuming that uninsured people were waiting until the end to sign up, it is hard to see how that figure would exceed 50 percent, given that six out of 10 uninsured people surveyed by the Kaiser Family Foundation recently didn’t know about the March 31 deadline and after being told about it, half of them still planned to remain uninsured

The administration claims that the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid has allowed four million to 4.5 million uninsured people to gain coverage. But a substantial portion of that stems from regular Medicaid growth (unrelated to Obamacare). In January, Real Clear Politics’ Sean Trende estimated the number to be closer to 400,000, although he expected things to improve as the sign-up deadline approached. And last month, Avalere, a health advisory company, put the new enrollees due to Obamacare at 2.4 million to 3.5 million. (Some states are reporting higher rates of uninsured Medicaid enrollment, but it is unclear how representative or reliable they are or how many of these uninsured might have been covered even under the old eligibility criteria.)

Also what is misleading in the numbers is the provision that allows 26-year-olds to stay on their parents’ plans. The administration claims that this provision has extended coverage to three million young people. But that’s a false assumption, given that at least some portion of them are college students with university coverage or self-employed with insurance from the individual market. Forbes’ Avik Roy estimates that the real figure is closer to 890,000, meaning that the administration’s figure represents an over 200 percent exaggeration.

All of this adds up to less than seven million uninsured being covered by Obamacare, which means that the program fell 46 percent short of CBO’s 13 million mark

Neil Cavuto of Fox News also reported the numbers to be way off.

"Now you know.
That 7.1 million enrollee figure the White House has been whooping up? Kind of off. Actually... kind of way off.

And Thursday night on Fox Business we told you how much off.

Not a million fewer enrollees. A million net new, paying enrollees.

Yes, we crunched the data, separated out as best we could those who already had insurance, so weren't exactly "new" to getting insurance. Then, with the help of an expert, separated from the remaining group those actually paying for the coverage.

And lo and behold we arrived at that slightly more than 1 million paying ObamaCare customers.
Now, the White House fumed that we were leaving out the millions signing up for Medicaid and kids staying on their parents' policies longer, thanks to ObamaCare. Fair enough, we told them, which is also why we excluded the millions more Americans who lost their health care coverage altogether.

We agreed to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. But safe to say in the end, this drove a lot of FBN viewers watching all this bananas.

Keith in Key Biscayne, Florida --"We torpedoed our entire health care system...for this?"

Barbara in Hackettstown, New Jersey --"Are you kidding me? A million net new enrollees? In a country of 320 million people? Come again?"

No, you got it right, Barbara. Put another way -- 46 million uninsured before all this, best case scenario, 45 million uninsured after all this. And according to the CBO, super best case scenario 10 years from now? 30 million still uninsured after all of this."

No comments:

Post a Comment